Gold’s Stability Tested: Central Bank Buying and Policy Expectations Drive Weekly Moves

Gold continued riding strong momentum this week, extending its 2025 run to more than 50 new all-time highs and gaining over 60% year-to-date. The rally was supported by persistent global uncertainty, a relatively weak U.S. dollar, and elevated demand from both investors and central banks seeking safe-haven assets and portfolio diversification. Meanwhile, silver and other precious metals also saw notable strength as traders piled into the broader “debasement trade.” 

Yet even as gold’s rally remains intact, the market appears to be pausing — potentially entering a consolidation phase. With key macro data out this week — including inflation readings and central-bank signals — expectations are high but mixed. If economic growth softens and real interest rates decline, gold may grind higher modestly. However, if global growth stabilizes or accelerates, a strong U.S. dollar and rising interest rates could pressure bullion prices and trigger a pullback. 

On the supply side, central bank activity remains significant, while gold recycling may add modest supply — a factor to watch if prices stay lofty. Still, gold’s core appeal as a safe-haven and “insurance policy” persists, especially with elevated global risk and market volatility. Silver, as a more volatile companion metal, may see sharper swings, but also has potential upside if demand for industrial or precious-metal hedges resurges. 

Gold is likely to tread a rangebound path near current levels in the near term. But over the next 12–18 months, two scenarios stand out: a slow-growth soft-landing could nudge gold modestly higher; or a deeper global risk episode — requiring renewed liquidity and safe-haven demand, could reignite the rally strongly.